Even without the usual monthly jobs report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics due to the government shutdown, other sources show a clear picture: employers are still cutting jobs and hesitating to hire new workers. In September, private companies in the US let go of 32,000 employees, according to a report from ADP, a global HR and payroll firm. Meanwhile, wages for those who kept their jobs stayed steady at a 4.4% increase compared to last year, but workers switching jobs saw bigger pay bumps, averaging 6.6%.

Hiring Trends and Company Size Differences

ADP’s data suggests that larger companies with over 500 employees are more willing to hire. In September, these big firms added about 33,000 new workers. Smaller companies, especially those with fewer than 50 employees, cut jobs—about 40,000 workers were let go. Mid-sized companies also reduced staff, releasing around 20,000 workers. Interestingly, a small bright spot was in the tech and knowledge worker sectors, which saw a slight increase of 3,000 hires last month. Education and health services also expanded, hiring 33,000 new employees.

The Bigger Picture in the Job Market

Ger Doyle from ManpowerGroup describes the current market as a “pivot” rather than a pause. He says the labor market is under pressure and shows signs of softness. Even without the official government report, real-time signals point to a reshaping of jobs and hiring patterns. Job postings are down 8% from August, totaling just over 2 million, the lowest since December 2022. Open roles have also fallen 10%, reaching about 6.86 million, the lowest in four years.

Despite these slowdowns, employee morale remains high among knowledge workers, with motivation scores hitting new records for six straight months. Many employees are staying put and focusing on internal moves, which are up 11% year-over-year. This shift suggests that companies are investing more in internal development and lateral moves rather than external hiring.

The Future of Jobs and Skills

The World Economic Forum predicts that by 2030, 92 million jobs worldwide could disappear, but 170 million new roles will be created. This means companies need to focus on skills rather than resumes. Sibyl McCarley from Hirevue emphasizes that more than 80% of companies plan to prioritize skills over formal degrees when hiring. Many are also increasing freelance work to fill gaps, especially in AI and other tech skills.

McCarley points out that new roles are emerging so quickly that traditional job titles often no longer tell the full story of someone’s qualifications. She urges organizations to adopt a skills-based approach to stay competitive. However, she also warns that AI is replacing some entry-level jobs, and companies are weighing AI as an alternative to hiring staff. Leaders need to be empathetic and prepared to support workers affected by automation and displacement, she adds.

Broader economic factors, like tariffs, policy uncertainties, and rising costs, are also impacting the workforce. Ben Johnston from Kapitus notes that tariffs may eventually boost domestic manufacturing but currently increase costs and disrupt supply chains. These issues threaten jobs in manufacturing, wholesale, and retail sectors. Meanwhile, companies are investing heavily in AI technologies that automate data analysis and decision-making, especially in white-collar roles like analytics and underwriting.

As AI and robotics become more advanced, blue-collar jobs such as driving, factory work, and home healthcare could also face displacement. Doyle from ManpowerGroup stresses that the skills needed for entry-level jobs are changing fast. The ability to work alongside new tech and adapt quickly is now a basic requirement for new workers. What it takes to get into the workforce today looks very different from just a year ago.

Overall, the job market is in a state of transition. While hiring has slowed and some jobs are being cut, high employee motivation and a shift toward skills-based hiring indicate that the market is adapting. Companies that learn to navigate this new landscape—embracing technology and internal mobility—will be better positioned for the future.

Inspired by

• https://www.computerworld.com/article/4067798/as-ai-redefines-work-us-employers-cut-jobs-and-remain-cautious-in-hiring.html

Sources

• gmpg.org
• adpemploymentreport.com
• upwork.com
• idc.com
• nenpa.com