Climate Experts Warn of Increased Wildfire and Flood Risks from El Niño
1Forecasters are warning that an upcoming El Niño could lead to more extreme weather events around the world. This includes intense wildfires, severe floods, and scorching heatwaves. While El Niño naturally influences global weather, scientists say human-caused climate change is making these events more severe and frequent.
What El Niño Means for Global Climate
El Niño is a climate pattern that occurs when warm water in the tropical Pacific Ocean shifts eastward. It releases large amounts of heat into the atmosphere, causing global temperatures to rise temporarily. Typically, it can increase the average global surface temperature by up to 0.3 degrees Fahrenheit. But recent El Niño events, like those in 2015-2016 and 2023-2024, have contributed to record-breaking heat levels worldwide.
Scientists emphasize that the impact of El Niño today is worse because the entire climate system is now warmer due to long-term greenhouse gas emissions. When a moderate or strong El Niño hits a planet already warmed by human activity, the results can be unprecedented weather extremes that didn’t happen in past decades. This includes more intense heatwaves, droughts, and flooding episodes.
The Role of Human Warming in Climate Extremes
Research from groups like World Weather Attribution shows that human-induced climate change plays a bigger role than El Niño itself in causing extreme weather. Since 2014, they’ve studied over 100 climate events and found that warming has significantly increased the likelihood and severity of these events. For example, recent heavy rains and flooding in regions such as the Horn of Africa were more influenced by long-term warming than the El Niño cycle.
Experts warn that the combination of climate change and El Niño could lead to deadly heatwaves. One scientist highlighted that heat is often invisible and silent but kills more people globally each year than many realize. She stressed that vulnerable populations, especially those with little resources, bear the brunt of these worsening conditions.
Wildfires and Droughts on the Rise
Regions prone to wildfires, like the Amazon, parts of North America, Australia, and Africa, are expected to face a particularly severe year. Droughts linked to El Niño and ongoing global warming create ideal conditions for fires to spread. Firefighters are preparing for a tough season, as dry grasses and brush become highly combustible after heavy rains followed by heat.
Already, large-scale wildfires have scorched over half a million square miles this year—an area bigger than Alaska—and many countries are experiencing record-breaking fires. In parts of Asia, including Myanmar and Thailand, drought-linked fires have burned through lush forests, driven by both climate change and El Niño effects. These fires threaten ecosystems and communities alike.
Overall, scientists warn that with the current trajectory, this could be one of the most damaging wildfire years in recent history. The interplay of drought, heat, and dry vegetation makes fire risk much higher, and the upcoming months could see devastating blazes on multiple continents.
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