Artificial intelligence is set to change the way the world moves goods and services. A new report from the World Trade Organization (WTO) suggests that AI could increase global trade by about 34 to 37 percent by the year 2040. This could also lead to a significant boost in world economies, with global GDP growing by roughly 12 to 13 percent. But there’s a catch—without fair policies, this new wave of AI might widen the gap between rich and poor countries.

The WTO’s study highlights some of the ways AI can make trade easier and cheaper. Think of translation tools that break down language barriers, automated paperwork that cuts compliance costs, and smarter logistics that reduce expenses over long distances. Basically, algorithms can handle the boring, repetitive tasks that slow down trade, making everything more efficient.

The Promise of AI for Global Trade

The report paints an optimistic picture of AI’s potential to transform commerce. For example, AI can help companies coordinate shipments, navigate customs, and manage inventories more smoothly. When these processes become faster and cheaper, businesses can expand their markets and reduce prices for consumers. This could lead to a faster, more integrated global economy where goods and services move more freely across borders.

AI also makes communication easier. Translation tools powered by AI can help companies understand and negotiate in different languages, opening up new markets. Automated compliance systems mean businesses spend less time and money ensuring they meet regulations. Smarter logistics, with AI optimizing routes and delivery schedules, could slash transportation costs and improve delivery times.

Challenges and Risks of Unequal Growth

However, the WTO warns that not everyone will benefit equally from AI. High-income countries are already investing heavily in digital infrastructure and skills, which means they could see faster gains. Lower-income nations might fall behind unless they upgrade their internet, train workers, and develop their own AI strategies. Without these steps, the benefits of AI could concentrate in a few countries, worsening existing inequalities.

This concern is echoed by UNCTAD, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. Their recent report points out that while the AI market could become worth trillions of dollars, only a small number of developing countries have clear policies or strategies to tap into this potential. Many still lack the hardware, like powerful computers and chips, needed to run AI systems. Funding is flowing into AI chip startups and automation hardware, but access remains uneven.

The European Court of Auditors recently reported that the European Union might miss its goals to help the least-developed countries participate in AI and trade growth. This timing is tricky, as the WTO emphasizes the importance of inclusive policies to ensure everyone can benefit from AI’s opportunities.

Shaping the Rules for AI-Driven Trade

Looking ahead, the WTO is working on updating trade rules to better fit the digital age. They’re focusing on how data moves across borders, protecting source code, and ensuring different systems can work together. These are the “plumbing” details that make AI-powered trade possible and reliable.

The WTO’s efforts aim to create a fair playing field. If rules are clear and access is equal, small exporters can compete globally, and large companies can operate more efficiently. But if countries don’t keep up with infrastructure and skills, the benefits will be uneven. That’s what UNCTAD warns about—the risk of deepening divides instead of closing them.

In the end, AI is not just an add-on for e-commerce. It’s a broad tool that can cut costs and improve efficiency across the entire trading system. The key is for policymakers to invest in infrastructure, education, and updated regulations. When done right, the dream of a more connected and prosperous global trade system becomes more realistic.

If countries work together to ensure fair access and smart policies, that 40 percent growth target by 2040 could become a reality. Otherwise, we might see the same old inequalities grow even larger, and the promise of AI-driven trade might stay just out of reach.

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• https://ai2people.com/trade-winds-turbocharged-wto-says-ai-could-lift-global-commerce-by-40-if-the-world-can-share-the-spoils/