The Atlantic hurricane season has reached a historic point, and the calendar is still moving. On September 11, 2026, no hurricane had formed in the Atlantic for the first time since reliable records began.
That gives the 2026 season a record unlike any other in the available record. The Atlantic Ocean has never seen a year without a hurricane since reliable records began, yet this season has now gone farther into the calendar without one than any season before it.
A Record That Rewrites the Season’s Timeline
Eric Berger, senior space editor at Ars Technica, wrote about the record on September 15, 2026. Before September 11 arrived, Berger offered a direct forecast: “I’m here to tell you that the Atlantic will not produce a hurricane by the end of Thursday.”
Thursday passed without a hurricane forming, and September 11 became the date that changed the record. The 2026 season is now set to have the latest-forming hurricane whenever one does spin up, if one forms at all.
The distinction matters because two seasons, 1907 and 1914, have no recorded hurricanes. Those seasons happened before satellites could spot storms at sea, so the record does not treat them as proof that no hurricanes existed. The new 2026 mark comes from an era with reliable records and satellite coverage of storms over the ocean.
Yet the season has not been quiet in every way. Five tropical storms have formed so far in 2026, including Tropical Storm Dolly. The Atlantic has produced tropical systems, but none has reached hurricane strength by September 11.
El Niño Is Reshaping the Atlantic Pattern
One major force behind the unusual season is El Niño. El Niño causes more wind shear in the Atlantic, and that wind shear cuts off the convection that fuels tropical cyclones.
In 2026, El Niño is already at record strength for this time of year. It is also expected to rank among the strongest events in living memory, creating a powerful explanation for why tropical storms have struggled to become hurricanes.
The atmosphere is giving storms a harder path to intensification. Tropical systems have appeared, but the wind shear linked to El Niño can disrupt the convection they need to keep building. That pattern has carried the Atlantic to a date no earlier season in reliable records has reached without a hurricane.
The forces behind this pattern may extend beyond one season. Climate change may be driving more of these “Super El Niños,” adding a larger climate question to an already unusual hurricane record.
Andrea Thompson is the senior editor for Earth and environment at Scientific American, while Michael Lowry is a meteorologist. Their names sit within the broader discussion surrounding the season’s rare combination of tropical storms, record-strength El Niño conditions, and the possible rise of stronger El Niño events.
Could the Record Still Change Again?
The record does not mean the Atlantic season has ended. The 2026 season still has time to produce a hurricane, and Michael Lowry offered a clear assessment: “it’s still more likely than not we’ll see a hurricane or two on the back side of the season.”
That forecast leaves the season balanced between two remarkable outcomes. A hurricane could finally form later than any hurricane in reliable records, or the Atlantic could continue toward a year without a hurricane, something the ocean has never recorded during the reliable-record era.
Either result would make 2026 a season unlike the others that came before it. If a hurricane forms, the season will own the record for the latest formation. If none forms, the Atlantic will cross an even larger line: the first reliable-record year with no hurricane at all.
For now, September 11, 2026, stands as the key date. Five tropical storms have formed, Tropical Storm Dolly is among them, and El Niño is blocking the convection that fuels tropical cyclones. The Atlantic has not stopped producing storms, but it has stopped short of producing a hurricane.
The next chapter depends on what happens on the back side of the season. One or two hurricanes remain more likely than not, yet the record has already been set—and every day without a hurricane pushes this extraordinary Atlantic season into new territory.
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