Heat pumps are on fire in the US and UK—sales keep climbing, and nothing is slowing them down. Even after the US federal tax credits ended on January 1, 2026, heat pumps outsold natural-gas furnaces by 32% in the first quarter. That’s a massive lead. The heat pump market is proving it can thrive without government handouts. Why? Because they work, save money, and technology keeps pushing boundaries.
US Market Defies the End of Incentives
For 15 years, heat pump sales in the US have doubled. They have beaten gas furnaces for four straight years now. The tax credits that offered up to $2,000 for installations between 2023 and 2025 expired at the end of 2025. Still, shipments stayed flat from December to January and then started climbing again in 2026. That steady rise shows strong market demand.
Lucas Davis, a UC Berkeley professor and energy economist, nails it: “It appears that the U.S. market for heat pumps is strong enough that it does not depend on tax credits.” This means consumers see the value beyond just the money saved upfront.
Heat pumps use electricity to move heat instead of generating it by burning fuels. They can also reverse direction to cool homes in summer. They cost less to run than gas or oil furnaces once installed, making them a smart long-term investment.
Tech Advances and New Options Drive Growth
Innovation is speeding up adoption. The MIT Technology Review named heat pumps a breakthrough technology in 2024. That’s no surprise since heat pumps can operate even at outdoor temperatures as low as -13°F (-25°C), though their efficiency drops in extreme cold.
In the US, a new wave of window heat pumps is hitting the market. These units cost between $3,000 and $4,000 and can be installed without a professional. They are less powerful and less efficient in very cold weather but offer a low-barrier entry point for homeowners wanting to try heat pumps.
DIY mini splits are also gaining traction. These systems come pre-charged with refrigerant and use quick-connect fittings. They can be installed in four to six hours without handling refrigerants, making them accessible to many homeowners. Top brands include Zone Air, MRCOOL, and Senville. “The true-DIY category grew up this year,” says Samantha Winters, editor at Mini Split Review. “Pre-charged, quick-connect systems on the new R-454B refrigerant have closed most of the gap with pro-installed equipment.”
Heat Pumps in the UK: Grants and Premium Models
Across the pond, heat pumps remain hot too. The UK offers generous grants to cut installation costs. These include £7,500 for certain heat pump installations and £2,500 for residential air-to-air heat pumps. From July 21, 2026, to March 31, 2027, off-gas-grid homes can apply for a £9,000 grant toward air-to-water or ground source heat pumps.
After grants, the typical installed price for a heat pump in the UK is about £4,459, according to Octopus Energy. Performance depends on home size, insulation, radiator capacity, and installation quality.
The UK market features top models from Vaillant, Mitsubishi Electric, Daikin, Grant, Worcester Bosch, Samsung, NIBE, Ideal, and Aira. For example:
- Vaillant aroTHERM plus uses R290 refrigerant and offers outputs from 3.5kW to 12kW.
- Mitsubishi Electric Ecodan R290 delivers high water temperatures up to 75°C and smart app control.
- Daikin Altherma 3 includes mid- and high-temperature options, ideal for replacing boilers.
- Grant Aerona 290 is MCS-approved and efficient with R290 refrigerant.
What’s Next for Heat Pumps?
Heat pumps are more than a trend. They’re the future of home heating and cooling. The US market’s independence from tax credits shows real consumer confidence. New affordable options like window heat pumps and DIY mini splits open doors for more homeowners.
The UK’s generous grants and premium models push technology and adoption forward. Around the world, countries like China and Germany are also moving fast to embrace heat pumps.
Energy savings, environmental benefits, and smarter tech mean heat pumps are heating up the market—and cooling it too. The momentum is unstoppable. Are you ready to join the heat pump revolution?
Based on
- Why heat pumps are still so hot in the US — technologyreview.com
- Are heat pumps getting cheaper in 2026? | The Independent — independent.co.uk
- The home cooling solution that is cheaper for renters than air conditioning | The Independent — independent.co.uk
- Heat pump buying guide UK 2026: Popular models compared with specs | The Independent — independent.co.uk
- Mini Split Review Releases 2025–2026 DIY Mini Split Rankings; Zone Air Named Best Overall | Currency News | Financial and Business News | Markets Insider — markets.businessinsider.com
