Russia’s answer to Starlink is struggling to reach the orbit it was built for. After two launches, all 32 Rassvet satellites remain below their planned altitude, and at least three appear to have failed outright.
The setback puts pressure on Bureau 1440, the company developing Rassvet, as Russia aims to place roughly 300 spacecraft into orbit by the end of next year. The larger plan calls for 924 satellites by 2035, but the first 32 have exposed serious problems with maneuvering, altitude, and satellite reliability.
The First 32 Satellites Are Stuck Below Target
Rassvet satellites were designed to operate at an altitude of 500 miles, or 800 kilometers. None of the satellites launched so far have reached that orbit. The highest altitude achieved by any Rassvet spacecraft is a little more than 300 miles, or 500 kilometers.
The first launch took place in March and carried 16 satellites. Twelve of those spacecraft settled into orbits at roughly 300 miles. One never made any significant maneuvers and reentered the atmosphere in June, while the remaining two have not raised their altitude during the last two months.
That leaves the first launch with a mixed record: most satellites reached the same lower orbit, one disappeared through reentry, and two stopped short of the altitude needed to move toward the planned 500-mile orbit. At least three of the first 32 Rassvets are likely to have suffered outright failures.
The second launch added another 16 satellites in July, but it brought more warning signs. Two never maneuvered after launch and appear to be heading for reentry. Eleven were “noticeably climbing” by early August, yet three appeared to stop maneuvering after initial attempts to raise their orbits.
The result is stark: zero Rassvets have reached 500 miles, and none of the satellites from the second group have climbed above 300 miles.
Why Lower Orbits May Be Part of the Plan
The stalled altitude raises a major question: are these satellites failing to reach their intended orbit, or have Russian ground teams changed the mission plan? Russian officials may have decided to abandon plans to place the Rassvet spacecraft at 500 miles.
There is one possible reason for keeping some satellites lower. Russian ground teams may be intentionally holding certain Rassvets at lower altitudes so their orbital planes can drift into position over many months. That approach would not erase the maneuvering failures, but it could explain why some spacecraft remain below their original target.
Starlink satellites fly closer to 300 miles, so Rassvet’s current altitude is not automatically a sign that every mission goal has been lost. The trouble is that Rassvet’s satellites were designed for 500 miles, and several spacecraft have stopped maneuvering altogether.
Data on satellite orbits from the US Space Force, along with tracking of the first 42 operational satellites of the US military’s Space Development Agency, adds a wider view of how spacecraft are reaching and maintaining their assigned paths. Rassvet’s first two launches now stand out because no satellite has completed the climb to its stated operating orbit.
A Tough Comparison With Starlink
SpaceX also faced failures during the early stages of Starlink, but its results improved as the program matured. About 5 percent of SpaceX’s first batch of Starlinks failed, while the first 60 Starlink prototypes had a failure rate of about 13 percent.
The next 420 Starlink satellites had a failure rate of about 3 percent. Starlink Version 2 satellites reached a failure rate of about 0.01 percent. Those figures show how satellite constellations can improve through repeated launches, design changes, and manufacturing experience.
Rassvet has not reached that stage. Its first 32 satellites have produced multiple spacecraft that failed to maneuver, satellites that remain below the planned orbit, and at least three likely outright failures. The contrast matters because Russia wants to scale the constellation from dozens of spacecraft to roughly 300 by the end of next year.
Russia’s entire satellite manufacturing sector has produced just a few dozen spacecraft per year since the fall of the Soviet Union. Building and operating a constellation planned to reach 924 satellites by 2035 demands a much larger production system, along with reliable launch, control, and orbit-raising operations.
Yuri Borisov, the former head of Russia’s space agency, Roscosmos, captured the challenge in 2023: “It turned out we weren’t ready for this.” Rassvet’s early flights now give that warning a concrete shape, with the program facing its first major test before Russia can expand from 32 satellites to hundreds.
The next steps will reveal whether the lower orbits reflect a deliberate strategy or a technical limit. For now, Rassvet remains far from its 500-mile target, and its path toward a full constellation is still waiting for a breakthrough.
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